Don't let the absence of torches, immunity necklaces, and flea-bitten appendages fool you--Fox's American Idol: The Search for a Superstar (Tuesdays at 9 p.m., Wednesdays at 9:30 p.m.) is getting every bit as nail-bitingly competitive as a good Survivor episode. Will mind-blowing talent (can you say Tamyra?) beat out heart-tugging schmaltz (yes, we mean you, Jim "My Parents Are Deaf" Verraros)? Are Americans suckers for a good old-fashioned Whitney Houston imitation? (Lord knows Ms. Houston herself hasn't been able to pull that off of late.) Will Nikki McKibbin's tongue stud and rock & roll lung power help her break away from the overly poppy pack? Will Ryan Starr's do-it-yourself fashion sense trump Kelly Clarkson's Southern-belle charm? And, of course, is there anyone on God's green earth who can stop curly-topped swoon-meister Justin Guarini? The answer is, How the heck do we know? Still, we've been doing our best Simon Cowell imitation and giving the remaining contestants a serious once-over. So clear your throat, warm up the vocal cords, and turn the page for our American Idol guide to the favorites, the dark horses, and the ones destined for a career at a Chilean karaoke bar.

Justin Guarini

If you want to know why Justin Guarini is destined to be the American Idol, just watch what he does to Paula Abdul. When the 23-year-old stunner with the golden curls locked those liquid brown eyes on hers while crooning the Jackson 5's "Who's Lovin' You," Ms. Abdul was reduced from sophisticated pop diva to human puddle. Next came that steamy, dreamy rendition of Oleta Adams' "Get Here." As Justin stretched out the title plea into a silky ribbon of falsetto, the audience of female contestants whooped and shrieked and feigned fainting spells. Abdul, however, remained quiet, her eyes welling with tears of damn-that-boy-can-SING rapture. "I have to compose myself," she whimpered afterward. You and me both, sister. Sure, Justin Haters exist; message board meanies sneer at his terminally tousled 'do (they call him Sideshow Bob), his hey, sexy glances into the camera, and his so-called cockiness (it's called confidence, mmkay?). But naysay all you like--it won't change what we Justin Lovers know to be true: He is every boyfriend's worst nightmare; he could, as AI reject-turned-critic Tamika says, sing the phone book to us and we'd be happy; and on Sept. 4 he will walk away with America's hearts--and, more important, their votes. --Kristen Baldwin

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 3-2 ---

Tamyra Gray

She's so good that Simon "X-Factor" Cowell had to turn to a new letter. "This girl may have just started the Zed Factor," he gushed after Tamyra Gray beautifully rendered Mariah Carey's "Vision of Love" in her first audition. "She goes beyond X." And Y not? Gray, 22, a former Miss Atlanta with the energy level of Saturday Night Live's Mango, a tummy to rival Janet Jackson's, and a neck like a Slinky (all the better for her powerful, guttural voice to travel through), became American Idol's first finalist not because of homemade outfits or parental sob stories but because of her talent, pure and simple. And she knows it too: Witness the ultra-confident throat-slitting hand gesture she broke out during her semifinal performance of "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going"--a double-whammy warning to the competition, perhaps? But for all her feistiness, Tamyra's also polite, resisting the urge to pull a Tamika and correct Simon when he mispronounces her name (so far he's called her "Ta-mah-ra" and "Ta-mee-ra" rather than the proper "Ta-my-ra"). As she sang, borrowing from Jennifer Holliday in the semis, "You! And you! And you! You're gonna love me!" From A to Zed, Tamyra, we do. --Dave Karger

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 3-1 ---

Christina Christian

I think we all know who God wants to win American Idol. Not since Survivor: Marquesas' Vecepia has a reality TV contestant embodied such celestial sanctioning as Christina Christian. First, check out that double dose of divinity in her name, and then just listen to her heavenly voice: Pitch perfect and packing a surprising punch, Christina's pipes also emit the kind of subtle vibrato you'd hear coming off the well-plucked harps of the seraphim. But dulcimer tones and angelic eyes notwithstanding, this 21-year-old still knows how to dance with the devil. Remember how she sang "Isn't He Lovely?" directly to Simon Cowell as a ploy to get past the first round? (And, lo, he was smitten by her kindness.) And who could forget that flesh-baring getup (judge Randy indeed!) she donned to deliver her soul-stirring rendition of Etta James' "At Last." You didn't have to be the prophet Isaiah to foresee her selection as that week's top choice to make the final 10. Unfortunately for Tamyra and Justin (two really sweet but unpredestined kids), the commandment is clear: Thou Shalt Not Adore False American Idols. So, America, heed the Great Talent Judge in the Sky and make Christina a star. --Jamie Bufalino

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 4-1 ---

Ryan Starr

Sure, Justin's got the looks, the locks, and the lungs, but where does he stand on the issue that will determine the first American Idol winner? I think you know what issue I mean, the issue all of America is talking about--the issue of...frim fram sauce. Only one contestant has dared to take a stance on this hot-button subject, and it is Ryan Starr's musical endorsement of the "sauce you put on top of French food" that separates her from the rest of the divas-in-training and boy-band wannabes.

Yes, the 19-year-old chanteuse also brings a smokin' voice, a catchy stage name (which mysteriously changed after she was introduced as Tiffany Montgomery in episode 1), and Liv Tyler looks to the table, but Starr's most appealing trait is her willingness to take chances. While many of her fellow female round-of-30 contestants were belting out predictable Whitney/Aretha anthems, she chose to croon about...well, I'm still not entirely sure what was going on there, but covering a Diana Krall number supposedly about a Gallic marinade was different, and different is always good. I'm also no Mr. Blackwell, but those mismatched cutoff gloves and white go-go boots? Nice. Very nice. Let's just hope America knows a real Starr when it sees one. --Dalton Ross

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 4-1 ---

EJay Day

Who better to win this battle of disenfranchised incogni-tones than the Ultimate Underdog, EJay? Originally ousted after round 2, this lanky, Leno-chinned crooner was suddenly summoned back to the competition after manboy finalist Delano Cagnolatti was banished for shaving six years off his age. But any misconception that EJay Day, 20, was nothing more than an also-ran was cleared up 32 seconds into his plaintively defiant version of Edwin McCain's "I'll Be." That's when this Johnny Underbite abruptly opened his mouth to detachable-jaw proportions, bid adieu to any testicular confines, and let loose a sustained falsetto blast that some on the message boards have called a shriek, a screech, and a cat crying, but which the judges rightly labeled "phenomenal" and "brilliant," with even Simon stating that "no one has sung better than that today." Let's put it this way: If you want the competition to end on a high note, EJay's your man. --Josh Wolk

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 6-1 ---

Nikki McKibbin

Somebody check Bonnie Tyler's phone records: We're guessing the '80s crooner has dialed in more than a few votes for 23-year-old Nikki McKibbin, the pink-haired contestant who gave Tyler a shout-out after shouting out a rendition of "Total Eclipse of the Heart." Of course, considering McKibbin's alterna-rock sartorial style (pierced tongue, imaginatively shredded tops, loud plaid pants, and did we mention pink hair?), the lite-FM staple may have seemed like a strange muse. But McKibbin's rendition managed to rock out without engaging in the kind of melodramatic bombast most of the other contestants are prone to. And if you need any proof that Nikki has what it takes to be a true rock star, don't forget she's already flexed her diva muscles by allegedly feuding with fellow Texan AI contestant Kristin (must have been some sort of midriff turf war). Let's hope McKibbin keeps that edge as the competition becomes more cut-throat; after all, much like one of her favorite crooners, we too are holding out for a hero. --Brian M. Raftery

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 8-1 ---

Kelly Clarkson

She sang the hell out of "respect," so let's give her some, shall we? Kelly Clarkson may be a whiter shade of pale in the image department, using words like super without a hint of irony and--perhaps most inexcusably for reality TV land--coming off as genuinely (what's the word?) nice. But you know what? Good for her. (Ghoulish A.J.'s ragged little goatee is "edgy" enough for the whole show, thank you very much.) And while the spectacle of 20-year-old Kelly channeling Aretha--flawlessly and with no- she-didn't! verve-- prompted semiracist dialogues on Idol's message boards ("Any black people here respect Kelly's rendition of the ultimate Aretha song?" read one post), cultural incongruity couldn't erase the fact that Kelly sported a better balance of pitch and power than any other contestant. (She left Simon speechless, for gosh sakes.) Added bonus: Unlike a certain unctuous, Garfunkel-coiffed front-runner, Kelly never gives you the V-like feeling that there's a lizard lurking behind that Colgate smile. --Scott Brown

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 10-1 ---

A.J. Gil

Although I hesitate to play the jingoistic card, let's face it: Not rooting for sensitive choirboy A.J. Gil to go all the way would be downright unpatriotic. When all the other contestants karaoked their way past the first round to Whitney's and Stevie's greatest hits, our 17-year-old tear-duct-endowed church singer belted out a rendition of "The Star-Spangled Banner" that would have brought even Osama bin Laden to tears. Sure, some have dismissed him as an O-Town wannabe, but I say the slightly Munster-ish facial hair, well-gelled coif, and Backstreet-esque name are exactly 'n sync with American Idol-dom. Plus, the guy wants to win only so he can help his mother "with her financial needs." Slice up the apple pie, people. What could possibly be more American than boy bands and Mom? As for that certain judge who dismissed A.J.'s performance in round 3 with an "I think you've blown it" snub and later referred to him as a "loser?" Well, Mr. London Loudmouth, in this country we embrace sweet-souled kids who like to wear their hearts on their hideously patterned sleeves. Deal with it. --Jessica Shaw

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 15-1 ---

Jim Verraros

Endearingly awkward Illinois native Jim Verraros, 19, appears to gather his wardrobe at The Buckle, violently vibrates his lower lip upon hitting a strong note, and boasts the most annoyingly pliable eyebrows this side of Nathan Lane. None of these qualities propel a teenager to stardom in the post-Backstreet era, but dammit, I like the kid. And why not? Unlike so many others, Jim behaves himself. What a joy that he didn't sass back after judge Simon Cowell said if he won the competition, that would mean Idol had "failed." How refreshing that he didn't flood the studio with happy tears upon reaching the final 10, instead taking the catatonic-shock approach. And don't even try to pretend his episode-1 rendition of "When I Fall in Love," replete with--shameless schlock alert!--sign language directed at his deaf parents, didn't tug at your inner cheeseball. Singing with all the earnestness of a young Paul Anka, this unrefined lad, who recently shed 70 pounds (and--dare I say it?--has the makings of a future hottie), has the kind of pipes that are just on the verge of busting a major vocal move. So bah, Simon! To you, Jim's triumph would spell Idol's failure. In my eyes, it's sweet victory for perfect gentlemen the world over. --Nicholas Fonseca

--- ODDS OF BECOMING THE AMERICAN IDOL: 20-1 ---

The Wild Card

What gives? No Adriel or Jazmin? Now that we've gotten that off our chests, here's our take on the five American Idol wild-card wannabes (the 10th slot had yet to be filled at press time):

CHRISTOPHER AARON, 23 This crooner from the Usher school of emoting has impressed judges with his "cool cat" demeanor and angel-on-helium voice, but he leaves us cold. Plus, he's no Adriel.

ALEXIS LOPEZ, 17 We don't get it. If it were up to us, honey, we'd tell you to buy a bra, fire your colorist, and go home, thereby making room for Adriel. But what do we know? The judges like you.

KELLI GLOVER, 20 She's got the looks, the pipes, and the 'tude, but Simon once ragged on her for a "karaoke soundalike" performance of Whitney's "I Will Always Love You." Still, if she picks the right songs, she could win it all...just like Adriel could have.

RJ HELTON, 21 Wait a minute--A.J.? EJay? There are far too many "Js" in this competition. Plus, he's no Adriel. Next!

ANGELA PEEL, 20 Underneath the nose ring and the tragic amounts of lip gloss, there's a girl with a boomin' voice and personality to spare. And while she's no Adriel, we kinda like her.

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